The Novel

In A Change in the Weather, the Russell family struggles to cope with the devastating social and political consequences of an abrupt climate change.

The story is set in March 2028 through May 2029.  Each summer for the past ten years, the Arctic ice cap has disappeared for a few more days than the last, and the winter ice continues to shrink and thin. The open Arctic inverts from heat reflector to heat sink, and the jet stream whips the globe like an unattended fire hose. Agriculture fails. The international economy collapses. Terrorism surges.

In the ensuing panic, the United States embraces President Roland Strauch, a Biblical literalist who heads the American Homeland Party and its armed militia, the Order of the Eagle and Cross.

Each member of the Russell family does what he or she thinks is right in an America where democracy and Christianity struggle to survive. What each thinks is right couldn’t be more in conflict.

A Change in the Weather isn’t science fiction. It isn’t a sweeping, post-apocalyptic fantasy. It’s a sober meditation on current trends—ecological, cultural, and political—we can all see for ourselves.

There are six parts and thirty-eight chapters. The eight chapters of Part One are posted here.

The entire novel is available in paper and as a Kindle book on Amazon. If you don’t have a Kindle, you can download free Kindle software to your PC or Mac. Free Kindle software is also available for other devices such as smartphones and tablets.

“Ray intertwines key dynamics of the global environment and American society to explore how individuals and families will be forced to respond to intersecting global crises. This is a heck of a story with a large cast of compelling characters.”

—  Charles Hugh Smith, author/blogger, Of Two Minds

“Earth’s climate is unstable, and we are pushing it hard towards a sudden shift to a new state by pumping huge quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. A radical shift in the climate between the years 2018-2028 as envisioned by Welch is entirely plausible.”

—  Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground

“We are already seeing (as predicted) outsized warming of the Arctic compared to other parts of the globe. There is growing evidence that we are already seeing weather patterns being influenced by loss of Arctic sea ice.” 

—  Dr. Mark Serreze, Director, National Snow and Ice Data Center, U. of Colorado at Boulder

“Ray has worked in the energy business for years and knows it inside out.” 

—  Chris Rafael, Editor, California Energy Markets

A Change in the Weather is a well-written and disturbing page-turner.  Ray has composed an edgy mix of fact and fiction that kept each of us up late each night until we were done. We looked forward to every chapter as he was writing them.”

—  Arjan Khalsa, CEO, Conceptua Math
—  Dalbir Khalsa, Physician Assistant, Community Medicine